Ask any Middle East expert from the panoply of United States government alphabet-soup agencies what their favorite posting was and Damascus is always at the top of the list. In my experience, while the work was invigorating, really this is because of the Syrian people, who were so kind and hospitable, and an absolute joy to live among (despite the horrific nature of the repressive regime of Bashar al-Assad). As such, many of us who served in Damascus are watching the events in Syria quite keenly, for professional reasons but also personal ones. I spent a great deal of time in Syria, my kids grew up there and I retain many Syrian friends, despite the freeze in bilateral ties between the two governments that has lasted decades. Memories of Faruq’s shawarmas in Malki, a pizza place with a glorious view of Mount Qasioun and the Shell Club in Yafur are part of my family’s history.
A key point as we have watched the stunning scenes in Syria transpire: It’s OK — and frankly smart — to say one does not know exactly what happens next. There are many different scenarios that are possible — we should stick to that. Strong predictions at this point are folly. One thing is safe to say, however. The absolute joy that so many Syrians feel now is truly inspiring.
Both U.S. and Israeli intelligence seem to have missed the possibility of Assad’s rapid demise. To be fair, many of us former officials now outside of government also did not seem to think this was likely, after Assad appeared to have weathered the civil war (due in no small part to disastrous U.S. policy choices a decade or so ago that never allowed the Syrian rebels a fighting chance). It is of course always very difficult to assess regime stability in autocratic governments. Perhaps the respective intelligence communities should go over in retrospect how some of the pillars of Assad’s regime — the power of the security services and the aura of fear that often keeps rulers in place, on top of support from Iran and Russia — fell apart in dramatic fashion. I once mentioned to a CIA director that the U.S. became quite adept under our counterterrorism mandate at man-hunting but failed dramatically in assessing the Arab Spring. In other words, the intelligence community, in partnership with the U.S. military, could track down and kill any designated terrorist globally but our ability to offer policymakers timely warnings on Middle Eastern events was quite suspect, at best. It seems my statement remains accurate even today.
Is the fall of Assad a positive development? From a human standpoint, yes, for those millions of Syrians who endured years of repression. Half a million or more Syrians were killed at the hands of Assad. Tens of thousands of Syrians languished in prisons. Many of us who knew life in Syria recall the dark side of life there — a pervasive fear of the police state that was real and palpable as you walked the streets. So it’s quite appropriate to say, “Thank goodness, that is now over.” Just look at the scenes of prisoners released from notorious prisons, such as Sednaya, north of the capital. The regime practiced industrial-scale depravity there, shocking the world with the details now emerging. Let’s allow Syrians to celebrate and not fall into the trap that Assad was the “devil we knew” — a favorite mantra of many foreign-policy commentators who reflexively balk at change. A mass-murdering war criminal has been deposed and that is, first and foremost, a wonderful thing, period. I think of a Syrian friend of mine, no friend of Islamists, who recently stated, “I am just so happy now.”
Yet one would be remiss not to offer that a couple of words of caution are now in order. There are potentially chaotic times ahead and everyone will be watching how the rebels govern internally. There are certainly no guarantees here that this will be a peaceful transition toward stability — look at Libya and Iraq, for example, when dictators fell and chaos ensued. In Syria, there are multiple and, at times, competing rebel factions, and history has shown that infighting between rebel groups often ensues, potentially torpedoing the possibilities of a better future. The most powerful group (given the recent battlefield successes), Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), may try and govern smartly with some inclusivity — but also may not. It is still characterized as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and British governments, as well as the United Nations. Perhaps we can loosely define HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (formerly known as “Abu Muhammad al-Jolani”) as “al Qaeda curious,” given his previous leadership role in the Nusra Front, while he has moved to show some moderation over the last several years. Nonetheless, for Christians and other minorities, and for women in Syria, there is some justifiable trepidation over how HTS might rule — although so far, so good, in terms of how al-Sharaa seems to be governing. It is notable that schools have reopened in Syria and public sector employees are back at work, perhaps a sign that some normalcy will be regained.
The U.S., U.K. and U.N. should acknowledge that they are watching and should have in place a path with key metrics for HTS to potentially be delisted as a terrorist entity. Last week’s visit to Damascus by Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf resulted in the U.S. rescinding the $10 million bounty on al-Sharaa’s head, which was a good move. We must encourage engagement, not isolation, because this is the only way to ensure that a new Syrian government is both inclusive for all Syrians and functional, offering services and security for the nation. Is HTS akin to the Taliban or the Islamic State group in how it reacts to catastrophic success? In my view, no. So Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent announcement that the U.S. was beginning dialogue with HTS is well placed. Of note, both the U.K. and French governments have stated the same desire to deal directly with HTS. I only hope that the stultifying bureaucracy within the National Security Council does not preclude the U.S. from taking bolder steps. If I were still in government service, I’d be lobbying for more engagement as early as possible.
The U.S. military and intelligence community must also continue its counter-Islamic State mission in eastern Syria — even more so now that a potential security vacuum may appear. Last weekend, the U.S. military reportedly hit 75 Islamic State targets via airstrikes. Yet there is considerable worry in U.S. national security circles that the incoming Donald Trump administration will withdraw these forces, as Trump pursues an isolationist foreign policy. A Syria descending into chaos would be a boon for the Islamic State and a counterterrorism headache for the U.S. and Europe. Have we not learned that ungoverned spaces are breeding grounds for militant groups?
Regionally, what are some other possible effects? We should abide by the mantra, “What happens in Syria never stays in Syria.” Many countries have significant interests in the region, and even among our allies as well as our enemies, competition will reign supreme. Great-power competition is never far from the forefront when it comes to Syria. Above all, Iran has lost another key proxy; Syria was its logistics hub for sending weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. As such, Assad’s downfall is truly a massive loss for Iran. In fact, the Iranian foreign minister recently said that “the resistance front had a hard year.” That is the understatement of the decade. Now, the key question is the status of the Iranian nuclear program. Will Iran accelerate it, knowing how weak it is militarily vis-a-vis Israel? Or will it, in essence, sue for peace and look to cut another nuclear deal with the international community? The incoming Trump administration will be hell-bent on reimposing a massive maximum-pressure campaign on Iran, with tough sanctions and the threat of military force regarding the nuclear program. Will Iran blink?
Israel remains the dominant military power in the region and, although its international standing must be suffering from the allegations of genocide in Gaza and the International Criminal Court ruling that has resulted in an arrest warrant for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, one could argue that it is in the best strategic position in decades. Hamas is severely degraded and Hezbollah — which was Iran’s “aircraft carrier” sitting on Israel’s border, acting as a deterrent against an Israeli strike on the Iranian nuclear program — has been decimated. As such, the Iranian nuclear program remains a very enticing target for the Israelis now, given that Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” is so damaged. In fact, this argument is now raging inside Israel’s national security establishment. Former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant made the rounds in Washington, D.C., last week and this subject was front and center in his public discussions. An Israeli strike on the Iranian nuclear program in the near term is a very real possibility that should not be discounted.
In addition, many questions remain concerning the status of Russian influence in Syria, including with regard to its naval bases. Will Russia try to stay involved and cut a deal with HTS? There are signs that this may have occurred. The rebel’s flag flew over the Russian Embassy in Damascus, indicating a possible desire for both sides to engage. Recent commercial imagery, however, also shows signs of the withdrawal of Russian military equipment. Overall, it remains hard to believe that the Syrian people — many of whom were on the receiving end of Russian airstrikes that killed thousands of Syrians — will allow any type of continued strong Russian influence. I hope the U.S. pushes hard to exclude any significant Russian presence. In fact, in the early 2000s, I worked diligently to diminish Russian influence in Syria, only to later have President Barack Obama’s administration invite the Russians right back in during the civil war. We have a chance to make this right again. Russia is a cancer in Syria that must be uprooted.
Turkey is the big winner so far. Its military support for HTS, including both provision of intelligence and military hardware, was probably designed for a limited HTS move in the north. Yet HTS experienced “catastrophic success” and the brittle Assad regime fell in spectacular fashion. That Turkey is on the rise was clear when the Turkish flag flew over the citadel in Aleppo. More recently, the Turkish foreign minister visited Damascus in a much-publicized event and was even personally driven through the city by al-Sharaa. The Turkish Embassy is also reopening in Damascus.
The United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Saudi Arabia missed the boat entirely on the downfall of the regime. In fact, they had been leading the charge for Assad’s normalization in the Arab world. They are scrambling now, but more than likely will be central to economic reconstruction efforts, pending a peaceful transition in Damascus and HTS showing continued moderation. Jordan, in particular, may feel vulnerable after the rebels’ takeover, as an Islamist government in Damascus is almost by definition a threat to King Abdullah, who has his own restive population, including a strong Islamist opposition. The chief of Israel’s Shin Bet, the country’s internal intelligence agency, called on his counterpart in Jordan recently; the king is definitely concerned, which means Israeli military and intelligence leaders are as well.
How did we get here? One can look to former Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who, on Oct. 7, 2023, started a chain of events that saw him killed, Hamas shattered, Hezbollah decimated, the Iranian regime weakened and now the Syrian regime ousted. All of this was a remarkable and staggering error on Sinwar’s part. When we speak of intelligence failures, and focus on governments, we think of the Israeli intelligence disaster prior to Oct. 7. But perhaps we are missing that other leaders have made such mistakes as well. Has there been an intelligence failure as dramatic as Sinwar’s? In some respects, Iran too shares this blame.
Other things may be on the minds of Western intelligence services. First, the rebels now have access to Syrian intelligence files — can the U.S. gain access to these as well? The files will of course show the grotesque nature of the regime’s spying on its own citizens. But they may also uncover the degree of previous counterintelligence activity against diplomats, when the U.S. and other European embassies were open, and whether Syria had uncovered our collective intelligence activities. Second, there is significant concern about Syria’s weapons of mass destruction programs — in particular, its chemical and biological programs. Clearly, Israel and the U.S. — not to mention Syria’s people and neighbors — do not want loose chemical weapons floating about. In fact, recent reports indicate that the Israeli military is currently hitting such chemical and biological weapons targets. Third, what is the fate of Western hostages in Syria, including Austin Tice, the American freelance journalist who was taken prisoner over a decade ago?
Overall, we have just witnessed two weeks that shook the region, made even more remarkable by the fact that few predicted this was coming. Fifty-four years of Assad family rule are now over. Yet such unforeseen “black swan” events can occur at a moment’s notice — they seem to happen in the Middle East with some regularity these days. The U.S. must approach Syria with a mix of joy and celebration, coupled with realistic caution, knowing that opportunities abound but that opportunities missed (whether by the rebels, the international community or the U.S. itself) may lead to difficult times ahead for all involved.
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