After a half-day journey, Aya reached her village in Tartous governorate on the Syrian coast, traveling from Aleppo, where she studies engineering at Aleppo University. Terrified and anxious, she had walked for several miles to flee her university residence after it was struck by a missile fired by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which killed four students, as the group led an offensive into the city.
Shortly after Aya departed Aleppo on a bus sent from her village, opposition groups seized control of the M5 international highway connecting Damascus and Aleppo, the main artery between Syria’s two largest cities. The bus carrying Aya and her friends was forced to take the only available route out of the city: the Ithriyah-Khanaser and Abu al-Duhur road toward Hama governorate, stretching over 180 miles, then onward toward Tartous.
Aya was one of many who swiftly fled Aleppo the day after opposition factions entered the city in late November. Having encountered these groups in the past, residents knew the consequences could be dire. At 2 a.m., she reached her village, where her family anxiously awaited her return. Even then, the sound of the missile strike lingered in her ears.
Aya immediately shared with her family the shocking news of the Syrian army’s collapse in vast areas west of Aleppo. This development raised countless questions. Within just 36 hours, rebel groups had seized control of 150 miles of government-held territory (including areas under the control of Iranian forces) and captured over 60 towns and strategic sites. Key locations had fallen, including the town of Saraqib in Idlib governorate, the 46th Regiment, the Scientific Research Center and critical points along the M5 highway. Most strikingly, the opposition entered the city of Aleppo late on the night of Nov. 29 without encountering resistance from the army or security forces. In a celebratory atmosphere, opposition fighters raised the three-star Syrian flag (the symbol of the revolution) over Aleppo’s historic citadel.
Since that day, reports have circulated about the withdrawal of Syrian government forces from Aleppo, the Idlib countryside, and later the western Hama countryside, followed by Hama city itself. Social media has become a stage for debates between supporters of the Syrian revolution and government loyalists, focusing on “victories and betrayals” and predictions of the Bashar al-Assad regime’s fall within 72 hours. This has sparked a resurgence of hate speech, exclusionary rhetoric and accusations of treachery among Syrians, reviving divisions that had subsided during years of deadlock. Arab media outlets, particularly Al Jazeera, intensified coverage of these events, fueling a sense of urgency and anxiety. Syrians inside and outside the country remained restless and sleepless, eagerly awaiting clarity amid the torrent of conflicting reports. Yet it seems this only marks the start of a rather protracted and uncertain phase of the conflict.
With the entry of rebel groups into Aleppo, exit points and bus stations became severely overcrowded, accompanied by widespread rumors about missing individuals and the continuity of daily life within the city. Official Syrian media reported that HTS snipers were targeting anyone attempting to flee, while the semi-official Al-Watan newspaper announced the “martyrdom of the director of scientific research in Aleppo, Dr. Yervant Arslanian, who was targeted by a sniper while leaving Aleppo on the Khanaser road.”
For the fourth consecutive day, hundreds of individuals, including members of the Alawite, Ismaili, Yazidi, Circassian and Armenian minorities, as well as some Sunni Muslims, continued to try to leave the city. Their efforts were driven by persistent reports of disappearances among Alawites, Kurds and Druze, with photographic evidence documenting some of these cases. Local sources alleged that these disappearances were the result of targeted executions conducted by HTS, based on pre-compiled lists prepared prior to their entry into Aleppo.
The Syrian rebel factions currently in Aleppo and its countryside include dozens of groups, some of which were formed and supported by Turkey within Syrian territory. The leading force among them is HTS, formerly known as the Nusra Front, an organization internationally designated as a terrorist group and previously affiliated with al Qaeda. Other factions include the so-called Syrian National Army (SNA) and fighters from over 30 Islamist groups with Turkish ties.
Some of these forces are characterized by extremist Islamist ideology, prompting thousands of city residents — particularly members of religious minorities — to flee. Many feared the imposition of Shariah as interpreted and imposed by the group in Idlib. Aya, a young Alawite woman in her 20s who does not wear a hijab, shared her experience with palpable relief at having survived. “After the missile struck, we learned late at night that Aleppo had fallen to the militants,” she recounted. “I was terrified. For years, I’ve seen how they slaughtered soldiers and beheaded anyone who opposed them in Idlib. The last video they released — a clip I wouldn’t recommend anyone to watch — showed them killing a soldier from Safita, a town of Christians and Alawites, with a knife just before they reached Aleppo. They imposed the hijab and enforced what they call Islamic Shariah, though they are entirely ignorant of it.”
In its official statements and video clips, HTS attempted to reassure the population, claiming it would not impose its laws on anyone. During the ongoing operation, which it names “Repelling Aggression,” it employed reassuring language specifically directed at Christians and Kurds, as well as Alawites.
Later, rebel groups seized the Sheikh Maqsoud neighborhood, north of Aleppo, from the mainly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), with little resistance. Yet clashes erupted between them and Ankara-backed rebels in Tal Rifaat, near the Turkish border, culminating in the latter gaining control of new positions. This redeployment marks a significant shift in Syria’s territorial dynamics, reshuffling the established front lines that had remained fixed since a 2018 de-escalation agreement between Russia and Turkey. In addition, it highlights Turkey’s expanding influence in the region and a calculated effort to diminish Iran’s presence in western and northwestern Aleppo — an outcome that may well be welcomed by both Washington and Tel Aviv.
Aleppo fell to rebel groups and Islamist factions in the summer of 2012 and remained under their control until Russia’s intervention in 2016. During those four years, the city endured constant fighting and relentless airstrikes by Russian and Syrian forces, which devastated its ancient buildings, historic markets and landmarks, including the Umayyad Mosque, a unique treasure in Syria. After the government regained control, the city saw a partial recovery but continued to suffer. Security abuses, government extortion of merchants and a lack of basic services such as electricity and fuel fed widespread discontent. This frustration was clear in the people’s response to last week’s takeover: They neither resisted the rebels nor welcomed them, instead waiting cautiously for the situation to unfold.
Conversations with Aleppo figures from the various sects and minority groups reveal a circumspect approach to assessing the unfolding events. “The Syrian army’s sudden withdrawal has raised fears that regional deals were struck at the expense of the people of Aleppo,” said a member of the Aleppo Governorate Council, who requested anonymity, to New Lines. He also voiced concerns about the possibility of the Syrian authorities resorting to the same military tactics used in 2012, when Aleppo faced near-daily bombings by Russian and Syrian aircraft. Those attacks displaced hundreds of thousands of residents, many fleeing to Turkey or to areas around Damascus and the coast, while vast parts of the city and its countryside were reduced to rubble. Some of the displaced eventually returned, not as civilians but as opposition fighters.
“The people of Aleppo are trapped between the jaws of a pincer,” said a long-standing member of the city council. “On one side, extremist militants, and on the other, an authority that rejects political solutions and insists on its own course. This means the war and its devastation could return to Syria’s economic capital, with dire consequences for citizens who have already endured years of suffering. Now, they face new challenges, and as this crisis drags on, the hope of returning to a normal life continues to fade, deepening their feelings of frustration, despair and isolation.”
A community activist and member of a civil society association named Rawan said the situation in the city was troubling because it was unclear what the immediate future held. “Over the past two days, I reached out to several political and civil leaders within the opposition factions, asking them to share their vision for the country’s future constitution and their definition of basic political freedoms with Syrians,” she said. “I also urged them to hold an open press conference. They made promising statements, but nothing materialized — and it likely never will. They are following a Turkish agenda, not a national one. This is one of the main reasons most Syrians refuse to support them.”
Mohammed Al-Sattouf, a member of the Syrian Journalists Association in Gaziantep, Turkey, said one key positive development was the return of refugees to their villages and towns after years of forced displacement in Turkey. He said that HTS’s focus, for now, appeared to be “on maintaining the status quo while improving critical services like electricity, water and bread.”
In the hours following the opposition’s offensive, Russian airstrikes hit the city’s entrance at Al-Basil Roundabout, killing dozens. The bombings continued over the next few days, sparking online campaigns condemning the attacks on civilian areas. “All the areas targeted by the airstrikes are civilian, and the victims are civilians,” posted Maribelle, a resident of Aleppo. “For every fighter, there are dozens of innocent lives lost. This is completely unacceptable. We, as civilians, refuse to be used as human shields or sacrificed for the agendas of any armed group.”
Growing tensions in Aleppo have sparked significant concern among the city’s remaining Christians, especially with Christmas and New Year celebrations approaching. These fears were fueled by the spread of misleading rumors and videos that dominated Syrian social media. One video, in particular, showed a man in military uniform seemingly attempting to sabotage an artificial Christmas tree in a Christian neighborhood. Another rumor that circulated on Facebook alleged that armed opposition factions had demanded “jizya” (an Islamic poll tax) from Bishop Avram Maalouli, the head of the Greek Orthodox Church, to be collected from Aleppo’s Christian community. This claim surfaced despite a message of reassurance from the bishop, in which he said: “We are fine and will remain in Aleppo alongside our flock through the harshest circumstances and the best of times. We will continue to support our parish when needed.”
The bishop also stressed that prayers in churches would continue as conditions permitted, urging residents to remain patient and calm. He advised those staying in Aleppo to limit unnecessary movement around the city. To reinforce a sense of normalcy, the church shared photos on Sunday showing sermons and congregants attending services.
A young man working in church services in Aleppo explained the opposition’s cautious approach toward Christians: “European and international eyes are on them now, so they avoid causing harm or changing the status quo. So we’re still in a phase of testing each other’s intentions.” Meanwhile, several news outlets reported that churches continued distributing bread to the needy without interference. Syrian authorities, in turn, confirmed that government agencies responsible for essential supplies in the governorate, including internet services, were still functioning, with many employees remaining at their posts.
A government bank employee in Aleppo described the process of withdrawing Syrian currency from banks and replacing it with Turkish lira. The campaign to collect Syrian pounds, he said, began at the First MicroFinance Bank Syria, a local private bank managed by the Aga Khan Foundation, and concluded at the Central Bank, with no less than 30 billion Syrian pounds removed.
At the same time, the armed opposition shut down cell towers operated by Syria’s two main telecom providers and introduced a new service, Syriaphone, which is already connected to the Turkish network. In a further symbolic move, an opposition member raised the Turkish flag at the entrance to Aleppo’s citadel (although it was later replaced).
Syrian activists abroad called for Alawites to rise up against Assad but these appeals were met with widespread criticism. Meanwhile, rumors began circulating in coastal areas of Syria, fueled by tweets from an X account, claiming that 600 Alawite girls attempting to flee Aleppo had been abducted.
Urgently, several military centers opened their doors to enlist fighters for army units and paramilitary groups. In Qardaha, Assad’s hometown, an Assad family member and well-known drug and coal dealer, Wasim al-Assad, launched a campaign to bolster military security forces. Volunteers were offered a salary of $200, a notable incentive amid the severe economic crisis gripping Syria’s coastal regions. Similar efforts were reported in Masyaf, Hama and Tartous, suggesting a push to rebuild the National Defense Forces (NDF) locally, with funding coming from merchants and loyalist community figures, possibly through coercion (the NDF were local militias affiliated with the government that fought on the front lines).
The fall of Aleppo to opposition forces became one of the harshest tests for the communities along Syria’s coast. A government employee captured the prevailing mood: “We never expected the army to lose and withdraw like this. In just a few hours, we lost vast areas of control that were won with the blood of our children. This rapid retreat shows either poor military planning or a lack of readiness among the forces.” The employee, who lost his eldest son in the 2015 battles for Aleppo, added: “What worries the people of the coast now, with [HTS] advancing, is the diminishing confidence in Russian bases to protect Latakia. They did little to repel the shelling when it rained down on the city and its countryside — only intervening when the bases themselves were directly targeted.”
Some argue that the arrival of HTS in Aleppo, a city marked by its diverse sectarian and ethnic communities, will indefinitely delay any chance of a democratic, civil and secular solution. It may also spark new conflicts in a region whose fires have yet to be extinguished. A member of the ruling Baath Party leadership in Latakia expressed concern that Syria could be split into sectarian and ethnic cantons, with borders emerging along the front lines once the fighting subsides. The official added that the establishment of de facto sectarian mini-states offers little comfort to minorities. An Alawite state on the coast would be overshadowed by the memory of the Nusra Front’s 2013 assault on the Latakia countryside, when horrific massacres were carried out against the local population, despite the presence of military forces.
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