Wolfram Lacher is a senior associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin. His research focuses on conflict dynamics in Libya and the Sahel region. His work has appeared in Survival, Mediterranean Politics, Foreign Affairs, The Washington Post, Le Monde and elsewhere. He is the author of “Libya’s Fragmentation” (I.B. Tauris, 2020).
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Further escalation appears to be the path of least resistance. While a critical mass of actors favors a negotiated solution that would sideline both Dbeibah and Bashagha, there is currently no forum for talks. The U.N. has lost the initiative to Egypt, which is hosting negotiations between Libya’s two legislative bodies on a legal framework for elections.