Larijani Shows Israel Is Addicted to Pointless, Flashy Assassinations

Israel announced today, March 17, that it had assassinated Ali Larijani, who became the de facto interim leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran after Israel assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Feb. 28. Also today, Israel assassinated Gholamreza Soleimani, the commander of the Basij forces, the domestic militia that enforces public modesty laws (among others). Larijani and the Basij are broadly believed to have orchestrated the massacre of thousands of Iranian protesters in January, with Larijani the one who persuaded the supreme leader to provide authorization and Soleimani responsible for executing the order.

Larijani came from an illustrious and well-connected family within Iran’s Shiite religious establishment. He was an important member of the Islamic Republic’s leadership, primarily because of his ability to build coalitions behind the scenes during times of brash rhetoric and mass demonstrations. Throughout its nearly half-century of existence, the Islamic Republic has always been ruled by such coalitions. The supreme leader, of whom there have been only two since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979, is first among equals, but he is no Kim Jong Un.

Larijani assumed interim de facto leadership of Iran after the assassination of Khamenei, despite the fact that the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member body of Islamic theologians and jurists, elected Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader’s son, to succeed his father. But Mojtaba has not yet appeared in public and is believed to be injured, or possibly dead. In his absence, the daily running of the country and the war effort fell to Larijani, who just a few days ago marched along with other senior Iranian officials in Tehran’s Quds Day parade, a pro-Palestine event traditionally held on the last Friday of Ramadan.

Israel is presenting the assassination of Larijani, whom one TV news analyst described as “a philosopher and a murderer,” as a major setback for the Iranian regime, and as proof of Israel’s operational omnipotence alongside the U.S. But there are reasons to doubt these claims. Even a cursory analysis of standard Israeli operating procedure demonstrates that Israel has become addicted to assassinations, though they do little to further Israeli security. Despite initial Israeli boasts about delivering debilitating blows to its enemies on all fronts (among the Palestinians, Lebanese and Iranians), there is no evidence that they achieved much for Israel.

This is not to say assassinations are ineffective. The killing of Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah diminished the group’s stature and operational capacity significantly. But even the most effective strike has its limits, evident in Hezbollah’s continued ability to fire hundreds of rockets into Israel and at Israeli soldiers advancing into Lebanon. And one successful decapitation might easily embolden Israel to commit still more, encouraging it to err on the side of elimination and reinforcing a trigger-happy doctrine that is ulltimately more addiction than strategy.