For months, as the war in Gaza raged on and student protests overtook American campuses, the question of just how much President Joe Biden’s steadfast support for Israel amid the war’s escalation would cost Democrats fueled endless debate.
Many speculated that the anger that fueled the protests would come home to roost in November, as Muslim Americans in key swing states who had voted for Biden in 2020 would stay home, or worse, vote for Republican former President Donald Trump. Those fears appeared to pan out in state elections and primaries, as Muslim Americans chose to write in other candidates or voted “uncommitted” in protest.
Now with the presidential race in disarray after Biden abandoned his reelection bid, observers are wondering whether Vice President Kamala Harris can reclaim those voters lost to the war in Gaza.
A new poll has shed light on the depths of Muslim-American disillusionment with the Democrats’ policies on the war in Gaza. But it also shows that many have not chosen to vote for Trump and may yet be swayed by the Harris campaign as it struggles to define its message on the conflict.
The study, which was conducted by the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding (ISPU) in partnership with Change Research and Emgage Foundation shortly before Biden dropped out of the race, offers both an insight and opportunity for the Democrats: an insight into how crucial Gaza has been to Muslim American-perceptions of the presidential race and an opportunity to offer a Kamala Harris candidacy as a “face-saving” measure, potentially bringing disaffected Muslim voters back to vote for a Democratic president.
The war has especially upset Muslims who voted for Biden in 2020, the majority of whom said before his departure that they did not plan to vote for him in 2024 as a result of his policies, according to the report.
In 2020, 65% of Muslim voters chose Biden over Trump. That percentage may have played a pivotal role in the results of three swing states that Biden won and that essentially decided the race — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia.
But the recent poll found that only 12% of Muslim voters said, when Biden was still the presumptive Democratic nominee, that they intended to vote for him. The data also suggests that the Muslim turn away from Biden has not translated into votes for Trump, though if large numbers of them vote for other candidates the result may still be a boon for Trump.
Gaza is the primary reason that Muslims who voted for Biden say they would not vote for him again.
Perhaps most relevant to the campaign of Harris, is the fact that the majority of Muslim voters say a permanent cease-fire in Gaza will strengthen the likelihood of their vote for a candidate regardless of party affiliation.
Muslims are the most likely religious group to identify as “independent” voters.
Among the study’s conclusions is that the data “suggests the Muslim migration away from Biden is primarily animated by anger at his Gaza policy.” Almost 9 out of 10 Muslim voters who had planned to vote for Biden and a similar proportion of Muslim swing voters say a permanent cease-fire in Gaza would make them more likely to vote for a candidate who supports it. And almost three-quarters of Muslims who voted for Trump in 2020 say a permanent cease-fire would make them more likely to vote for him in 2024. The latter population marks a departure from the general Trump voter, where almost half say they feel indifferent about a cease-fire. (About 1 in 4 say it would increase the likelihood of them voting for Trump, while another 1 in 5 say it would decrease the likelihood, making the effect almost a net zero.)
Muslim support for Trump was low in 2020 — about 18% — and this portion remains relatively stable as 22% said they planned to vote for the former president.
Muslims who support Trump hold views consistent with Muslim voters overall when it comes to a permanent Gaza cease-fire, with 72% supporting it. But they break with their party on the issue as well as on countering Islamophobia (non-Muslim Trump supporters are generally indifferent about these), and on aid to Israel, strongly supported by non-Muslim Trump voters.
But they are on par with the general Trump voter when it comes to social issues such as traditional family and gender roles.
The report also found that regardless of party affiliation, the majority of Muslim voters care about environmental issues. This puts Muslim voters who support Trump somewhat at odds with general Trump voters, of whom 1 in 4 say environmental policies would lessen their support for a candidate.
Before Biden dropped out of the race, there was a spirited conversation within the American Muslim community about how to punish the president for his handling of Gaza. One response was the “Abandon Biden” movement, which urged Muslim Americans to “actively campaign against” Biden’s reelection, especially in key swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Egyptian-American comedian Bassem Youssef gave visceral expression to this view when he told the BBC in February that he wanted Biden to lose over Gaza.
“I don’t care about Trump winning, but I want Joe Biden to lose,” said Youssef. “The Democrats are blackmailing us. It’s like if you don’t vote for Biden, Trump will come,” he added.
Another approach was the “uncommitted” voter campaign aimed at applying voter pressure on Biden to call for a cease-fire. By checking an “uncommitted” box in Democratic Party primaries rather than casting their votes for Biden, these voters withheld their support for the president, effectively sending him the message that they were open to voting for him in the general election, the large caveat being that he would have to win their support by changing course on the war. In Michigan, over 100,000 people, close to 13% of the total Democratic vote — far exceeding the margin of Biden’s 2020 victory over Trump in that swing state — voted “uncommitted.” This movement quickly spread to other battleground states, such as Wisconsin, where “uninstructed” (Wisconsin’s equivalent of “uncommitted”) garnered more than 47,000 votes in the Democratic primary — more than twice the margin by which Biden won the state in the general election four years ago.
This mobilization sent shockwaves through the Biden campaign and greatly affected the Democratic Party, as New Lines reported in May.
With the vote expected to be tight in swing states, Democrats will be wondering whether the change of their candidate offers a potential way back to the White House in 2024. As the survey demonstrates, Muslim voters who have deserted the Democrats have not gone over to Trump but instead to third parties, suggesting that a Harris presidential run could offer them a way to vote Democratic without supporting Biden personally.
There remain a sizable number of “Never Bidens” who feel the president’s conduct during the Gaza war merits punishment, which could now extend to Democrats in general. Biden carries a lot of baggage as a result of the war, not merely in terms of his policies, but also because of his comportment. Many Muslim voters say they felt unheard and unseen by the president since the war in Gaza started. They feel he showed insufficient sympathy to the suffering and death of Palestinian civilians as he sometimes used his platform to parrot Israeli far-right propaganda points that dehumanized Palestinians en masse.
Some Muslim leaders have been privately willing to give Harris the benefit of the doubt. Since she started her presidential campaign, Harris has tried to tread a delicate path over Gaza — not criticizing the sitting president but indicating she will take a harder line on Israel and push for a peaceful solution. She declined to preside over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech to Congress and let it be known after her meeting with the Israeli prime minister that she would “not be silent” over the suffering of Palestinians in the war.
Harris has reportedly urged the White House to take a more sympathetic stance toward the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza. While criticizing the perceived excesses of some pro-Palestinian protesters in the U.S., she has also taken a more nuanced line on the protest movement as a whole, stating in a recent interview that the protesters are “showing exactly what the human emotion should be, as a response to Gaza.”
In an appearance with Netanyahu during his recent visit to Washington, Harris also gave a statement that seemed to put the onus on the Israeli leader to conclude a cease-fire agreement in Gaza. While offering Israel “ironclad support,” Harris also spoke at length about the suffering of Palestinians.
“The images of dead children and desperate hungry people fleeing for safety, sometimes displaced for the second, third or fourth time. We cannot look away in the face of these tragedies. We cannot allow ourselves to become numb to the suffering, and I will not be silent,” Harris said.
Harris has also drawn criticism from some Israeli officials over her statements on the war, including calls for a cease-fire.
“Madam candidate, there will be no cessation of hostilities,” Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir wrote on the social media platform X.
Trump has echoed these attacks over her stance on Israel-Palestine. In an interview on WABC radio on July 30, Trump claimed that Harris looked uncomfortable while meeting last week with Netanyahu.
“You can see the disdain,” he said, adding, “Number one, she doesn’t like Israel. Number two, she doesn’t like Jewish people. You know it, I know it and everybody knows it and nobody wants to say it.” (Trump didn’t mention that Harris’ husband is Jewish.)
All rhetoric aside, whether a change of approach from the Democrats will realign them with the voters they lost over Biden’s policy remains to be seen.
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