Israel Can’t Maintain a Long War With Iran, and the US Isn’t Interested
I’m writing from the bomb shelter in my apartment building, which is just outside Tel Aviv. Gen. Eyal Zamir, the chief of staff of the Israeli military, was just interviewed for a domestic media outlet. Zamir was barely able to contain his glee at the “unprecedented cooperation with the American military” and the “pioneering spirit of our forefathers” inspiring Israel’s “heroes” as they “teach our enemies” a lesson.
This is the 12th time my children and I have taken shelter in response to instructions from the military’s Home Front Command. It is Saturday, Israel’s one-day weekend. Most businesses are closed on Saturday, but supermarkets opened today in response to the familiar chaos of war, which is already part of collective daily life here. People are panic-buying food, mineral water and other wartime staples. Around the country, fights have been breaking out between customers battling over cheese, milk and eggs.
No one knows the scope of Iran’s reach. While fisticuffs erupt in supermarkets, the general population appears to be resigned to the inevitability of war. Most Israelis seem happy to support the bombing. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can claim that the war began to “free the Iranian people,” and Israelis will embrace his message eagerly. Netanyahu can then say the purpose of the attack is to “eliminate the threat to Israel,” and Israelis will nod sagely. For two decades, the prime minister has been speaking about the threat that Iran supposedly presents to Israel’s existence. Israelis can and will support war for whatever reason they are given. Two and a half years of genocidal fighting in Gaza have inoculated Israeli society against empathy and peace.
How long will this continue? Despite the widespread cheering and exhortations among Israelis to “go all the way” in attacking Iran, it seems Israel is almost certainly incapable of carrying out a prolonged attack on its own: After exhausting its assets on the ground — Mossad assassins and drone operators — in the June 2025 war, Israel still has aerial strength, but even aerial strength has its limits. Meanwhile, the U.S. is almost certainly not interested in staying the course for more than a few days.
President Donald Trump and Netanyahu have found synergy in pursuing their personal and political interests with this attack on Iran, but this state of affairs is (as it always has been) for the short term. Trump will not be averse to striking a deal with a more cooperative Iranian leadership. Netanyahu and Zamir will continue to speak of Iran’s imminent plans to “destroy Israel,” which is a meaningless phrase. The Israeli political establishment, as well as the general population, has completely caved to Netanyahu, with opposition leader Yair Lapid proclaiming that now, due to the war, there is no such thing as political opposition.
The military, too, has capitulated. It desperately needs a win as it faces its failure to vanquish Hamas in Gaza. Trump is facing real opposition even from his own right flank, to say nothing of the Democrats and the American public.
Events inside Iran, not the intensity of the bombings, will decide the future of this conflict. If rumors that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is dead are true, he may well be replaced by a pragmatist like Hassan Rouhani, architect of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or Iran nuclear deal. Israel and the U.S. will likely begin to drift apart sooner rather than later.