Assassinating Larijani Is a Pyrrhic Victory for Israel
Israel announced today, March 17, that it had assassinated Ali Larijani, who became the de facto interim leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran after Israel assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Feb. 28. Also today, Israel assassinated Gholamreza Soleimani, the commander of the Basij forces, the domestic militia that enforces public modesty laws (among others). Larijani and the Basij are broadly believed to have orchestrated the massacre of thousands of Iranian protesters in January, with Larijani the one who persuaded the supreme leader to provide authorization and Soleimani responsible for executing the order.
Larijani came from an illustrious and well-connected family within Iran’s Shiite religious establishment. He was an important member of the Islamic Republic’s leadership, primarily because of his ability to build coalitions behind the scenes during times of brash rhetoric and mass demonstrations. Throughout its nearly half-century of existence, the Islamic Republic has always been ruled by such coalitions. The supreme leader, of whom there have been only two since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979, is first among equals, but he is no Kim Jong Un.
Larijani assumed interim de facto leadership of Iran after the assassination of Khamenei, despite the fact that the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member body of Islamic theologians and jurists, elected Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader’s son, to succeed his father. But Mojtaba has not yet appeared in public and is believed to be injured, or possibly dead. In his absence, the daily running of the country and the war effort fell to Larijani, who just a few days ago marched along with other senior Iranian officials in Tehran’s Quds Day parade, a pro-Palestine event traditionally held on the last Friday of Ramadan.
Israel is presenting the assassination of Larijani, whom one TV news analyst described as “a philosopher and a murderer,” as a major setback for the Iranian regime, and as proof of Israel’s operational omnipotence alongside the U.S. But there are reasons to doubt these claims. Even a cursory analysis of standard Israeli operating procedure demonstrates that Israel has become addicted to assassinations, though they achieve little in furthering Israeli security. Despite initial Israeli boasts about delivering debilitating blows to its enemies on all fronts (among the Palestinians, Lebanese and Iranians), there is no evidence that they achieved much for Israel.
The entities and organizations Israel claims to have destroyed absorbed the indisputably heavy blows Israel dealt, and continue to function. Despite the assassination of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, the militant organization’s ability to fire hundreds of rockets at Israeli soldiers advancing into Lebanon, and into Israel proper, as well as Iran’s escalating and effective attacks on Israel’s most heavily populated areas, all suggest that assassinations are, at best, tactical successes indicating superior ground intelligence. But assassinations have yet to hand Israel any kind of decisive victory. Moreover, they often provide the replacement leaders, who are even more militant than their dead predecessors, with executive authority. Israelis like personal narratives of madness, redemption and just desserts. But the narrative does not appear to hold in the case of Larijani.